Forecast of seasonal streamflow series with artificial neural networks and linear models adjusted for bio-inspired algorithms

Orientadores: Christiano Lyra Filho, Romis Ribeiro de Faissol AttuxDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica e de ComputaçãoResumo: O Sistema Elétrico é um dos pilares do desenvolvimento tecnológico e industrial de uma nação. Dessa forma, é necessário gerir de uma maneira eficiente todos os recursos necessários para obtenção de energia elétrica. Os recursos hídricos se tornam essenciais já que o parque gerador brasileiro é predominantemente hidráulico. Neste contexto, o estudo da previsão de séries de vazões das usinas hidrelétricas tornou-se um campo de pesquisa altamente relevante para o planejamento da geração de energia no Brasil. Os modelos empregados pelo setor elétrico são os chamados modelos de Box & Jenkins, que exige um pré-tratamento dos dados de entrada por conta da sazonalidade encontrada nas vazões ao longo do ano. Este trabalho se utiliza de uma gama de modelos de previsão para comparação de desempenho no problema de previsão de séries de vazões médias mensais, em períodos distintos, da usina hidrelétrica de Furnas. Dentre os modelos lineares, é proposta a utilização de um dos modelos estatísticos, o Auto-regressivo e Médias Móveis (ARMA), tendo seus coeficientes calculados através de algoritmos bioinspirados: algoritmo genético e duas propostas de algoritmos imunológicos, uma baseada em pequenas alterações do CLONALG e a opt-aiNet. Em seguida, um filtro linear realimentado de resposta ao impulso infinita (IIR) tem seus coeficientes calculados pelos algoritmos de otimização acima citados. Na parte dos métodos nãolineares, fez-se a abordagem da aplicação de redes neurais artificiais do tipo perceptron de múltiplas camadas (MLP), com a utilização do algoritmo do gradiente conjugado escalonado modificado para o treinamento. Por fim, uma rede de estados de eco (ESN) é utilizada no problema, com dois algoritmos de treinamento: a proposta de Ozturk et al. E a de Consolaro. Os resultados experimentais mostram a aplicabilidade das ferramentas bioinspiradas e, em muitos casos, a relevância do laço de realimentação. No caso nãolinear, não foi possível obter resultados expressivos para a MLP, enquanto as ESN's mostraram alguns resultados promissores.Abstract: The Electric System is one of the pillars of technological and industrial development of a nation. Thus, it is necessary to manage in an efficient manner all necessary resources to obtain electrical energy. Water resources become essential since the Brazilian generator park is predominantly hydraulic. In this context, the study of prediction of the streamflow series of hydroelectric dams has become a field of research highly relevant to the planning of energy generation in Brazil. The models used by the electric sector are called models of Box & Jenkins, which requires pre-processing of input data due to the seasonality found in streamflow throughout the year. This work uses a range of forecasting models to compare performance in the problem of monthly averages streamflows series approached, in different periods, the hydroelectric power plant of Furnas. Among the linear models, it is proposed to use one of a statistical model, the autoregressive and moving average (ARMA), taking their coefficients calculated by bio-inspired algorithms: genetic algorithm and two proposed of immunological algorithms, one based on small changes in CLONALG and opt-aiNet. Then, a recurrent linear filter with the infinite impulse response (IIR) has its coefficients calculated by the optimization algorithms above. At the non-linear part, it is the approach of applying artificial neural networks of the type of multi-layer perceptron (MLP), using the algorithm of the modified scaled conjugate gradient for training. Finally, an echo states network is used in the problem, with two training algorithms: the proposal of Ozturk and of Consolaro. The experimental results show the applicability of bio-inspired tools and, in many cases, the importance of the loop of feedback. For the non-linear case, it was not possible to obtain significant results for the MLP, while the ESN's have shown some promising results.MestradoAutomaçãoMestre em Engenharia Elétric

Developing a Measure Image and Applying It to Deep Learning

The use of intelligent systems linked to musical tasks such as automatic composition, classification, and Music Information Retrieval has increasingly shown itself to be a promising field of study, not only from a computational, but also from a musical point of view. This paper aims to develop an innovative method capable of producing a coded image that contains all the information of a musical measure, generating a structure that can be used in several computational applications involving machine learning, especially deep learning and convolutional neural networks (CNNs). To illustrate the usefulness of this method, the measure image is applied to a CNN to solve the problem of automatic musical harmonization. This brief application achieves better results than those known in the literature, demonstrating the method’s effectiveness

Hemangioma Cavernoso em Processo Nasal da Maxila – Relato de Caso / Cavernous Hemangioma in nasal process of maxilla - Case report

Hemangiomas são tumores vasculares benignos, mais comuns da região da cabeça e do pescoço. Apresentam crescimento lento, podendo causar deformidades ao paciente. Sendo o tipo cavernoso mais associado à parede lateral do nariz ou à concha inferior. Este estudo tem o objetivo de relatar um caso de hemangioma cavernoso diagnosticado em uma paciente, do sexo feminino, 51 anos de idade, com história de deformidade nasal associada a cefaleia crônica, pelo desenvolvimento de massa em dorso nasal. A paciente foi submetida a excisão endonasal total da lesão, com anatomopatológico e estudo imunohistoquímico sugerindo lesão vascular malformativa, com padrão de hemangioma cavernoso

Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Dynamic Ensemble Selection

Solar irradiance forecasting has been an essential topic in renewable energy generation. Forecasting is an important task because it can improve the planning and operation of photovoltaic systems, resulting in economic advantages. Traditionally, single models are employed in this task. However, issues regarding the selection of an inappropriate model, misspecification, or the presence of random fluctuations in the solar irradiance series can result in this approach underperforming. This paper proposes a heterogeneous ensemble dynamic selection model, named HetDS, to forecast solar irradiance. For each unseen test pattern, HetDS chooses the most suitable forecasting model based on a pool of seven well-known literature methods: ARIMA, support vector regression (SVR), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP), extreme learning machine (ELM), deep belief network (DBN), random forest (RF), and gradient boosting (GB). The experimental evaluation was performed with four data sets of hourly solar irradiance measurements in Brazil. The proposed model attained an overall accuracy that is superior to the single models in terms of five well-known error metrics

Unorganized Machines to Estimate the Number of Hospital Admissions Due to Respiratory Diseases Caused by PM10 Concentration

The particulate matter PM10 concentrations have been impacting hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases. The air pollution studies seek to understand how this pollutant affects the health system. Since prediction involves several variables, any disparity causes a disturbance in the overall system, increasing the difficulty of the models’ development. Due to the complex nonlinear behavior of the problem and their influencing factors, Artificial Neural Networks are attractive approaches for solving estimations problems. This paper explores two neural network architectures denoted unorganized machines: the echo state networks and the extreme learning machines. Beyond the standard forms, models variations are also proposed: the regularization parameter (RP) to increase the generalization capability, and the Volterra filter to explore nonlinear patterns of the hidden layers. To evaluate the proposed models’ performance for the hospital admissions estimation by respiratory diseases, three cities of São Paulo state, Brazil: Cubatão, Campinas and São Paulo, are investigated. Numerical results show the standard models’ superior performance for most scenarios. Nevertheless, considering divergent intensity in hospital admissions, the RP models present the best results in terms of data dispersion. Finally, an overall analysis highlights the models’ efficiency to assist the hospital admissions management during high air pollution episodes

Framework for Optimized Analysis of Waste Bioenergy Projects

Over the years, cities have undergone transformations that, invariably, overload and even compromise the functioning of an energy matrix dependent on increasingly scarce resources. The high demand for energy has challenged stakeholders to invest in more sustainable alternatives, such as bioenergy, which, in addition, helps to reduce the pressure for finite resources, enable the energy recovery of waste and contribute to the mitigation of carbon emissions. For these improvements to be successful, stakeholders need specific technological strategies, requiring tools, methods and solutions that support the decision-making process. In this perspective, the current work aimed to develop a framework optimizing the evaluation of waste bioenergy projects through the application of algorithms. Therefore, a literature review was carried out to select the algorithms and identify the sectors/areas and stages in which they are applied. These algorithms were then grouped into two sequential phases. The first targeted the evaluation of region, based on the type and supply of biomass, while the second sought to optimize aspects related to infrastructure and logistics. Both phases were concluded with the application of multi-criteria methods, thus, identifying the areas/regions with the greatest potential for implementing bioenergy projects. In general, it was observed that there are different algorithms and multi-criteria analysis methods that can be suitable in bioenergy projects. They were used to identify and select the regions with the greatest potential for bioenergy plant implementation, focusing on the type, quantity and perpetuity of biomass supply, to assess the operational efficiency of machines, equipment, processes and to optimize the logistics chain, especially the collection and transport of biomass. Thus, the joint work between the use of algorithms and multi-criteria decision methods provides greater assertiveness in choices, helping to identify the most viable projects and mitigating risks and uncertainties for decision-makers

Framework for Optimized Analysis of Waste Bioenergy Projects

Over the years, cities have undergone transformations that, invariably, overload and even compromise the functioning of an energy matrix dependent on increasingly scarce resources. The high demand for energy has challenged stakeholders to invest in more sustainable alternatives, such as bioenergy, which, in addition, helps to reduce the pressure for finite resources, enable the energy recovery of waste and contribute to the mitigation of carbon emissions. For these improvements to be successful, stakeholders need specific technological strategies, requiring tools, methods and solutions that support the decision-making process. In this perspective, the current work aimed to develop a framework optimizing the evaluation of waste bioenergy projects through the application of algorithms. Therefore, a literature review was carried out to select the algorithms and identify the sectors/areas and stages in which they are applied. These algorithms were then grouped into two sequential phases. The first targeted the evaluation of region, based on the type and supply of biomass, while the second sought to optimize aspects related to infrastructure and logistics. Both phases were concluded with the application of multi-criteria methods, thus, identifying the areas/regions with the greatest potential for implementing bioenergy projects. In general, it was observed that there are different algorithms and multi-criteria analysis methods that can be suitable in bioenergy projects. They were used to identify and select the regions with the greatest potential for bioenergy plant implementation, focusing on the type, quantity and perpetuity of biomass supply, to assess the operational efficiency of machines, equipment, processes and to optimize the logistics chain, especially the collection and transport of biomass. Thus, the joint work between the use of algorithms and multi-criteria decision methods provides greater assertiveness in choices, helping to identify the most viable projects and mitigating risks and uncertainties for decision-makers

Forecasting Electricity Demand by Neural Networks and Definition of Inputs by Multi-Criteria Analysis

The planning of efficient policies based on forecasting electricity demand is essential to guarantee the continuity of energy supply for consumers. Some techniques for forecasting electricity demand have used specific procedures to define input variables, which can be particular to each case study. However, the definition of independent and casual variables is still an issue to be explored. There is a lack of models that could help the selection of independent variables, based on correlate criteria and level of importance integrated with artificial networks, which could directly impact the forecasting quality. This work presents a model that integrates a multi-criteria approach which provides the selection of relevant independent variables and artificial neural networks to forecast the electricity demand in countries. It provides to consider the particularities of each application. To demonstrate the applicability of the model a time series of electricity consumption from a southern region of Brazil was used. The dependent inputs used by the neural networks were selected using a traditional method called Wrapper. As a result of this application, with the multi-criteria ELECTRE I method was possible to recognize temperature and average evaporation as explanatory variables. When the variables selected by the multi-criteria approach were included in the predictive models, were observed more consistent results together with artificial neural networks, better than the traditional linear models. The Radial Basis Function Networks and Extreme Learning Machines stood out as potential techniques to be used integrated with a multi-criteria method to better perform the forecasting

Forecasting Electricity Demand by Neural Networks and Definition of Inputs by Multi-Criteria Analysis

The planning of efficient policies based on forecasting electricity demand is essential to guarantee the continuity of energy supply for consumers. Some techniques for forecasting electricity demand have used specific procedures to define input variables, which can be particular to each case study. However, the definition of independent and casual variables is still an issue to be explored. There is a lack of models that could help the selection of independent variables, based on correlate criteria and level of importance integrated with artificial networks, which could directly impact the forecasting quality. This work presents a model that integrates a multi-criteria approach which provides the selection of relevant independent variables and artificial neural networks to forecast the electricity demand in countries. It provides to consider the particularities of each application. To demonstrate the applicability of the model a time series of electricity consumption from a southern region of Brazil was used. The dependent inputs used by the neural networks were selected using a traditional method called Wrapper. As a result of this application, with the multi-criteria ELECTRE I method was possible to recognize temperature and average evaporation as explanatory variables. When the variables selected by the multi-criteria approach were included in the predictive models, were observed more consistent results together with artificial neural networks, better than the traditional linear models. The Radial Basis Function Networks and Extreme Learning Machines stood out as potential techniques to be used integrated with a multi-criteria method to better perform the forecasting